![](https://disident.info/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Nato-Rusija.jpg)
NATO može da rasporedi vojni kontingent od 100.000 vojnika za vojnu akciju protiv Rusije ako ta zemlja pređe jednu od dvije crvene linije, piše u komentaru italijanska Republika.
List navodi da se prva crvena linija odnosi na direktnu ili indirektnu intervenciju treće strane u ratu protiv Ukrajine, a riječ je prije svega o učešću u invaziji sa sjevera Bjelorusije, dok je druga crvena linija vojne provokacije protiv baltičkih zemalja, Poljske ili Moldavije.
Republika napominje da trenutno ne postoje operativni planovi koji bi podrazumijevali slanje trupa, već samo procijene mogućih akcija u slučaju vanrednih situacija kao krajnja mjera i ističe da je fokus i dalje na odvraćanju i otklanjaju mogućnosti da direktan sukob postane stvarnost.
Republika piše da je NATO, prvi put od početka rata u Ukrajini, na veoma povjerljiv način i bez zvaničnih saopštenja, identifikovao najmanje dvije crvene linije, koje, ako budu pređene, može doći do direktne intervencije u sukobu u Ukrajini.
Analitičari ocjenjuju da je rusko-ukrajinska granica veoma duga, a da trupe Ukrajine više nisu u stanju da je u potpunosti kontrolišu, pa bi potencijalni prodor Rusije na sjeverozapad stvorio koridor između Kijeva i Bjelorusije, a Minsk bi tada bio direktno uključen u vojni sukob, piše list.
Kada je riječ o drugoj crvenoj liniji, a to su vojne provokacije protiv baltičkih zemalja, Poljske ili Moldavije, Republika navodi da to ne mora nužno biti invazija, već samo vojni napad kako bi se testirala zapadna reakcija.
Prema pisanju lista, više nije isključena hipoteza o vojnom slomu ukrajinskih trupa, zbog čega je od vitalnog značaja za zapadne lidere da pošalju jasnu poruku ruskom predsjedniku Vladimiru Putinu da je jedno duboko prodrijeti na istočne teritorije, a drugo osvojiti prestonicu ili uključiti treće države u rat.
Drugim riječima, ocjenjuje italijanski list, Ukrajina ne smije da izgubi i NATO je spreman da direktno interveniše kako bi izbjegao kolaps Kijeva.
Republika navodi da na istoku Evrope, u baltičkim zemljama, u Poljskoj, Slovačkoj, Mađarskoj, Bugarskoj i Rumuniji, NATO može da računa na više od 100.000 vojnika koji su već raspoređeni ili bi bili mobilisani za nekoliko dana.
List ocjenjuje da bi se moguća reakcija Zapada odvijala postepeno i da bi prvo bilo mobilisano vazduhoplovstvo, dok bi kopnene trupe bile posljednje sredstvo u slučaju eskalacije.
Na zapadu su svjesni da bi u slučaju direktnog sukoba i dalje postojale ogromne operativne poteškoće, a da Francuska, na primjer, može brzo da pošalje ne više od 20.000 ljudi, navodi se u komentaru Republike i dodaje da, prema riječima bivšeg komandanta Strateških vazduhoplovnih snaga Bruna Megrea, u sukobu visokog intenziteta francusko vazduhoplovstvo ne bi imalo raspoloživih aviona za 10 dana i vjerovatno ne bi imalo rakete na raspolaganju nakon dva dana.
List navodi da analitičari smatraju da slične procjene, u nekim slučajevima i gore, važe za glavne evropske zemlje kada je riječ o nedostatku artiljerije i proizvodnih linija vojne industrije, ali istovremeno ukazuje da u Evropi postoje američke baze, zbog čega NATO danas više ne isključuje nijedan scenario.
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